Trump increases effort to win over Black and Hispanic voters amidst unfavorable poll numbers.
Third Time’s the Charm
Preparing to accept the Republican Presidential nomination for the third time, former President Donald Trump is desperately trying to expand his coalition, specifically targeting two minority groups to help him do so.
The Key to Success
Trump has set his sights on the Black and Hispanic American votes that swayed the previous 2020 election in Biden’s favor.
Unfavorable Views
Two recent consecutive polls conducted by the Associated Press in June, taken by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, show that 7 out of 10 Black Americans have a “somewhat” or “very” unfavorable view of Trump.
Not Good Enough
The polls also showed that 5 out of 10 Hispanic Americans feel the same way. Regardless of Trump earning some brownie points back since his exit from the Presidential office in 2021, these two minority groups still believe his negatives outweigh the positives.
Trump’s Tactics
In 2020, Trump won 35% of Hispanic votes and 8% of Black votes but is still struggling to expand his coalition beyond this small base. One of Trump’s many tactics to win over minority votes is to capitalize on Biden’s decline in popularity with the communities since 2021.
Results Unclear
At this time, it is not clear if Biden’s loss of favorability with the Hispanic and Black voters will necessarily increase Trump’s votes with these groups.
Majority of Americans Dislike Trump
According to the AP-NORC analysis, the majority of Americans have a negative view of Trump. The two consecutive polls, taken close together to increase the sample size, showed that around 6 in 10 U.S. adults have a “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable opinion of him, with 4 in 10 having a favorable opinion.
Shockingly Stable
These poll numbers are not too far off from polls taken in 2021, only months before Biden began his time in office. In fact, Trump’s polling numbers have been incredibly stable over time, regardless of his 34 felony convictions.
Felony Convictions Don’t Rock the Boat
After his felony convictions in New York for falsifying business documents, the AP-NORC Center still found that his polling numbers barely changed. During his time as President, the Gallup polls stated that his average job approval rating was 41% and never passed 50%.
“Great Support”
During his current campaign trail, Trump has repeatedly said that he is receiving “great support” from the Hispanic communities. However, the AP-NORC polls only see about 40% of Hispanics see him favorably, compared to roughly 30% back in January 2021. Current data shows that 50% of Hispanic adults have an unfavorable view of him.
Data Doesn’t Match
While his campaign advisors remain steadfast that he has a specific appeal among Hispanic men and younger Hispanic adults due to his dedication to business, the data does not match up with their claims. The polling data shows that the views of Trump are quite similar between Hispanic men and women, regardless of age or college degree.
Biden on the Chopping Block
Trump is not the only one facing a lack of support from Hispanic Americans. A recent analysis shows that around half of Hispanic adults have an unfavorable view of Biden, while only 4 in 10 have a favorable view. This decline is quite substantial compared to data taken in 2021, which showed about 6 out of 10 Hispanic Americans had a positive view of Biden.
Taking Advantage
Trump continues to make claims that he will perform better with Black adults this year compared to 2020, believing that his mugshot and felony convictions will resonate with a minority group that has continuously experienced systematic discrimination within the U.S. criminal justice system.
Negative Views Remain
Regardless of his claims, Black adults continue to have negative views of Trump. Data shows that around 7 in 10 Black adults have an unfavorable view of Trump, which is a decrease of about 20 percentage points since 2021.
Across the Board
Trump also continues to say that Black men are more receptive to his policies compared to women, but the data shows that Black adults have the same views of him no matter the gender.
A Possible Way In
The one group that may be more open to Trump’s appeals seems to be younger Black Americans. Polls show that around one-third of Black adults under 45 see him positively compared to 1 in 10 Black adults older than 45. Still, the majority of young Black adults view him unfavorably.
Biden’s Numbers
Comparatively, around 6 in 10 Black Americans have a favorable view of Biden, down from 8 in 10 back in 2021.
Data Details
The data discussed here was taken from 1,115 adults between June 7-10, 2024 and 1,088 adults between June 20-24, 2024. The polls were conducted in line with NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel designed to represent the U.S. population.
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Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / Evan El-Amin.
